Vaccine Supply Optimization and Forecasting using Random Forest and ARIMA Models

In order to tackle the Corona Virus Disease, it took a considerable amount of time for the governments to come up with effective and efficient vaccines. After the vaccines were developed, the next challenge was to supply the vaccines to various designated centers based on demographics, population distribution, and other factors. The whole system for vaccine supply played a vital role during the COVID-19 pandemic. We also saw a lot of haphazard and mismanagement in some places especially when the cases per day surged high, as people weren't prepared for such a situation. Now that we have got enough data, we can use it to optimize the vaccine supply across various Covid Vaccination Centers and be prepared for any such circumstances in the future. In this paper, we have proposed a two-step approach where considering the past supply and wastage data we performed a classification task that indicates whether doses are to get wasted at a given center. If yes, we then perform demand forecasting based on the number of administered doses so that the wastage can be reduced, and supply can be optimized. © 2022 IEEE.

Child Care in Times of COVID-19: Predictors of Distress in Dutch Children and Parents When Re-entering Center-Based Child Care After a 2-Month Lockdown.

As a consequence of the outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) child care facilities all over the world were temporarily closed to minimize the spread of the virus. In Netherlands, the first closure lasted for almost 2 months. The return to the child care center after this significant interruption was expected to be challenging, because earlier studies demonstrated that transitions into child care can be stressful for both children and their parents. The current paper retrospectively examined the distress of Dutch children (aged 0-4) and their parents during the first 2 weeks after the reopening of child care centers, and what factors accounted for individual differences in distress. In total, 694 parents filled out an online questionnaire about stress during closure and distress after the reopening of child care centers. Furthermore, questions regarding several demographic variables and child care characteristics were included, as well as questionnaires measuring child temperament, parental separation anxiety, and parental perception of the child care quality. Results showed that younger children and children with parents scoring higher on separation anxiety experienced more distress after the reopening, as reported by parents. Furthermore, children were more distressed upon return when they attended the child care center for less hours per week after the reopening, experienced less stress during closure, and grew up in a one-parent family. With regard to parental distress after the reopening, we found that parents scoring higher on separation anxiety and fear of COVID-19 experienced more distress. Moreover, parents experiencing less stress during closure and mothers were more distressed when the child returned to the child care center. Finally, concurrent child and parental distress after reopening were positively related. The results of the current study may help professional caregivers to identify which children and parents benefit from extra support when children return to the child care center after an interruption. Especially the role that parental separation anxiety played in predicting both child and parental distress deserves attention. More research is required in order to study the underlying mechanisms of these associations and to design appropriate interventions.

Reopening the Doors to Center-Based ABA Services: Clinical and Safety Protocols During COVID-19.

In the wake of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, U.S. organizations that provide applied behavior analysis (ABA) programs to individuals with autism spectrum disorder have implemented a variety of safety precautions to minimize the spread of the virus, often shifting center-based services to the home or telehealth. Considered essential workers, ABA providers are exempt from government directives to close, so they have both the freedom and the great responsibility to make their own decisions about how best to keep their clients safe while continuing to provide medically necessary services. In the coming weeks and months, ABA providers will be faced with the decision about whether to reopen centers. This article does not address that decision, except to acknowledge the urgency to reopen, both to help clients and to remain solvent. Political rhetoric and contradictory public information further complicate this daunting decision. Because ABA providers do not have legal guidance to shift the burden of such decisions to local and state regulators, the burden is theirs alone. The unprecedented nature of the COVID-19 pandemic means that no decision is clearly wrong or right, and every decision has consequences. Although ABA providers do not have their own state guidance, many states have issued guidelines for childcare providers whose operations have continued throughout the pandemic. This article analyzes that guidance, identifies common variables potentially relevant to ABA organizations, highlights clinical considerations and procedural compliance, and provides ABA organizations with the tools to make the best decision for their clients, in their community, and on their timeline.